AOA Updates
Update: August 14, 2017
Important Announcement It’s with a heavy heart I write this email. After a few great years, the publishers have decided it’s time to retire the AOA. We made a huge impact on people’s lives, making trades, taking in profits… and sharing in the losses. Like life, there were ups and downs. I hope you found […]
Update: August 7, 2017
August 7, 2017 Portfolio Update Wow… The summer is HOT…. it’s supposed to be hot here in Phoenix (110 on Wednesday!). But do you know what’s hotter than Phoenix in August? This market! In just the last two weeks, we’ve surged from 21,600 to over 22,000! This latest surge has been well received by […]
Update: July 24, 2017
July 24, 2017 Portfolio Update It’s summertime… and market volumes are light. Because of the light volumes, we’ll see rapid moves in the market sometimes… so take profits quickly and cut losses quickly too. Fast approaching is the September and October time of year (we’re about six weeks away). If we get a […]
Update: July 10, 2017
July 10, 2017 Portfolio Update We’re holding tight right now in the overall market. After a steady climb in early June, we’ve flatlined. I think the market is trying to figure out its next move… but over the next 8 weeks, it’s going to be interesting, as summer vacations really impact trading volumes. I’m […]
Update: June 19, 2017
June 19, 2017 Portfolio Update Since the start of June, the market has been making new high after new high. We’re climbing a wall of worry right now. What I find interesting is the new highs are hitting during the summer slow season… and after the Fed hiking rates. Normally a Fed rate […]
Update: June 5, 2017
June 5, 2017 Portfolio Update The market is breaking to new highs. The move isn’t the strongest, so I’m not sure how long it will last. That said, we need to keep a close eye on our open positions. We’ve had a few big moves! Watch for a new trade next week. Let’s look […]
Update: May 22, 2017
May 22, 2017 Portfolio Update It’s been an ugly few weeks in the market. We’re in a choppy range with the sell in May crowd squashing any rallies we might get. I’m still waiting for the market to break one way or the other. News from the White House is pushing the markets (no […]
Update: May 8, 2017
May 8, 2017 Portfolio Update As I write this, the market is hovering around the 20,900 mark. Could we flirt with new highs soon? Sure. Could the entire market crumble and fall? Why not? Anything is possible… and to be honest, I don’t think either scenario is likely. I think we’re in a […]
Update: April 25, 2017
April 25, 2017 Portfolio Update Hi everyone, sorry for the delay, I was traveling yesterday and couldn’t get this update out in time. The market hit a low of 20,400 just a few days ago…. then rallied a bit. Yesterday’s move was quite amazing! Is the fall over? Only time will tell. We continue […]
Update: April 10, 2017
April 10, 2017 Portfolio Update The downdraft in the market has continued… though downdraft might be a bit of a harsh word. Over the last two weeks, the market has traded in a tight range between 20,500 and 20,750. What’s interesting is the drop in the market fell to the 50-day moving average… which […]
Update: March 27, 2017
March 27, 2017 Portfolio Update At our last update, we had a small pullback in the Trump rally. Unfortunately, that downtrend has continued… we’re now at Day 8 of consecutive losses in the market. It’s not a good sign. The recent Fed hike, and the subsequent fail by the President to put together any […]
Update: March 13, 2017
March 13, 2017 Portfolio Update We had a tiny pullback in the Trump Rally last week, but it was small. I’m expecting the market to stabilize here… but we need to watch the Fed very closely. The Fed meets this week, and any increase in rates could jeopardize the rally. I’m not expecting a […]
Update: February 27, 2017
February 27, 2017 Portfolio Update Wow… The Trump Rally continues! Just look at this chart… As you can see, the market is continuing to surge. If it’s still up by the end of next week, we’ll probably deploy a few put positions to protect our downside. The S&P is clearly overextended, and the […]
Update: February 13, 2017
February 13, 2017 Portfolio Update The market stays strong and our retail stocks are starting to shine! Two recent trades are up and in the money… The Trump Rally continues! Hold tight to our positions. Let’s look at the portfolio… Portfolio Highlights Just a quick note: We won’t update every open position every […]
Update: January 30, 2017
January 30, 2017 Portfolio Update It was a huge week in the markets… we crossed above the 20,000 mark on the DOW which created a huge storm of excitement in the news media. The funny thing is, most professional market participants don’t watch the DOW… they watch other market indices. The Trump rally is […]
Update: January 17, 2017
January 17, 2017 Portfolio Update I hope everyone enjoyed the long holiday. With the markets closed Monday, it was a perfect time to take a breather from the mad rush of the new year. The market continues to hold strong, and seems to be gaining power as we get closer and closer to […]
Update: January 3, 2017
January 3, 2017 Portfolio Update Happy New Year everyone… and welcome to 2017! Over the last few days, I’ve spent some time looking at the markets and trying to figure out where we’re going from here. What are we seeing right now? We have a strong willed market that is pushing to new […]
Update: December 5, 2016
December 5, 2016 Portfolio Update We’ve only had 4 losing days in the last three weeks since the election. The Trump rally is strong and is helping our portfolio of options trades. How long will this last? It’s anyone’s guess… but we’re heading into the end of year Santa Claus rally. After that we […]
Update: November 21, 2016
November 21, 2016 Portfolio Update The last two weeks have been very exciting for the markets. The surprise win by Donald Trump for President whipsawed the markets by hundreds of points, then set up a massive rally. We had an almost 1,000 point rally in the Dow… which pushed a number of our options […]
Update: November 7, 2016
November 7, 2016 Portfolio Update This is a huge week. The election is tomorrow, and finally, after 2 years of double speak, we’ll elect a new president. Here’s the thing, the markets are afraid of Trump. He’s an unknown as a politician… and as the polls have tightened, the winner is no longer a […]
Update: October 24, 2016
October 24, 2016 Portfolio Update Individual stocks are moving on earnings, but the overall market has been pretty tepid the last couple weeks. Barring anything unforeseen, the next potentially market-moving catalyst will be the FOMC meeting the first week of November. Rates are expected to remain steady, however we could find out more info […]
Update: October 10, 2016
October 10, 2016 Portfolio Update First, a quick programming note: I’ll be traveling next Monday, so next week’s new trades will come out on Tuesday. Stocks have been quiet so far in October. Once the September FOMC meeting came and went, there hasn’t been a whole lot for investors to focus on. Of course, […]
Update: September 26, 2016
September 26, 2016 Portfolio Update The markets have been more interesting of late, but overall performance has been pretty stable. For instance, after all the news items over the past couple weeks, the S&P 500 is still holding its year-to-date gains at around 6.5%. We’re still looking at a full year return between 5%-10% […]
Update: September 12, 2016
September 12, 2016 Portfolio Update We finally had some action at the end of last week, with the major stock indexes dropping around 2% in a day. At the same time, volatility jumped over 30% – although it was very low to begin with. Some may have thought this was the beginning of a […]
Update: August 29, 2016
August 29, 2016 Portfolio Update The last couple weeks have brought a tad bit more action, but the overall theme has still been wait-and-see. Stocks have generally moved up or sideways, with no real big days recently. Investors have become increasingly complacent with volatility levels at very low levels (considering what could be on […]
Update: August 15, 2016
August 15, 2016 Portfolio Update Well, August tends to be a slow month for stocks – but it’s been even slower than I would have imagined. Typically, August is a huge vacation month as families get ready to send their kids back to school. But this time around, it really does feel like half […]
Update: July 18, 2016
July 18, 2016 Portfolio Update Not only have investors moved on from Brexit, they basically have forgotten all about it. Major US stock indexes are reaching new highs, and nothing seems to be able to derail the current enthusiasm towards equities. In fact, the S&P 500 is up over 7% for the year. Granted, […]
Update: July 5, 2016
July 5, 2016 Portfolio Update It’s been an eventful couple weeks since our last update, although you may not know it looking at current index levels. That’s because the market plunged during the Brexit turmoil but has already recovered since investors figured out it’s not that big of deal in the US. That’s not […]
Update: June 13, 2016
June 13, 2016 Portfolio Update Hello volatility! It had been a very calm – you may even it call it bullish – June so far. At least until today. Investors decided today was the day to get spooked about Brexit and what it may mean for global stocks. The VIX jumped over 20% and […]
Update: May 31, 2016
May 31, 2016 Portfolio Update Summer is pretty much in full force, but investors haven’t walked away from the market just yet. The stock market has performed well lately on stronger economic news, and has also gotten a boost from oil. All eyes will be on the Fed as an important June FOMC meeting […]
Update: May 16, 2016
May 16, 2016 Portfolio Update We had a pretty decent up day today for the first time in awhile. It’s mostly been back and forth action for the last couple weeks. The big news today was the Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) $1 billion stake in Apple (AAPL). That’s an investment the world’s largest company surely […]
Update: May 2, 2016
May 2, 2016 Portfolio Update It’s been an interesting year for trading, with some out of the ordinary situations (on a macro level). Individually, you never know what may happen with a stock, but overall correlations tend to follow patterns. This year, that’s not necessarily the case. For instance, most of the major stock […]
Update: April 18, 2016
April 18, 2016 Portfolio Update The stock market is finally acting like it’s a bull market – or at least a bullish to neutral market. Stocks may be a bit overbought (based on valuations) but it’s nothing too egregious. More importantly, the major indices are finally positive on the year (for the most part). […]
Update: April 4, 2016
April 4, 2016 Portfolio Update The financial markets have certainly stabilized over the last several weeks, especially the equities markets. Overall volatility is way down, and we’re seeing a definite turn towards complacency. This trend is likely to continue until some kind of market moving news comes out. That being said, earnings start next […]
Update: March 21, 2016
March 21, 2016 Portfolio Update The bulls seem to be in control, at least for now. The market has certainly stabilized over the last several weeks, especially in terms of volatility. Today, the spot VIX price was at 14 – the lowest it’s been all year. The S&P 500 and DJIA are positive for […]
Update: March 7, 2016
March 7, 2016 Portfolio Update The last couple weeks have been quite a bit more enjoyable if you’re bullish. Stocks have settled in after reversing higher off the lows of the year. The days of big moves and high volatility seem to be over with for now. We’re not entirely out of the woods, […]
Update: February 22, 2016
February 22, 2016 Portfolio Update It took almost a month and half from the start of the year, but investors are finally starting to calm down and buy stocks. That’s not to say we’re out of the woods just yet. But, at least volatility is back down to more reasonable levels. In fact, VIX […]
Update: February 8, 2016
February 8, 2016 Portfolio Update We can’t seem to break the bear market environment we’ve been in for most of this year. Investors don’t seem at all ready to get back into stocks (or most other asset classes for that matter). And, volatility has either been increasing or holding steady for the past several […]
Update: January 25, 2016
January 25, 2016 Portfolio Update Well, it hasn’t exactly been a promising start to the year for bullish stock investors. On the other hand, at least things have stabilized somewhat after a period of fairly extreme volatility. Investors have settled down to some extent, although there’s still a fair amount of risk on the […]
Update: January 11, 2016
January 11, 2016 Portfolio Update Ouch. That’s not the way we wanted to see 2016 start, at least if you’re a stock investor. The year has opened with the worst start in history (in terms of a 5-trading day period). The S&P 500 is down 6.5%, the Dow is also down 6%, and oil […]
Update: December 14, 2015
December 14, 2015 Portfolio Update Editor’s Note: Our offices will be closed for the holidays for the final two weeks of December. There will be nothing published during that time. We’ll get things restarted in January with a new trade theme. Hope you all have a happy holiday season! It’s been a fairly rocky […]
Update: November 30, 2015
November 30, 2015 Portfolio Update Since our last update, we’ve already had Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and now Cyber Monday come and go (well mostly). It sure seems like this year is going by quickly! We’re already in the heart of holiday shopping season and there are just a few more weeks of work/school before […]
Update: November 16, 2015
November 16, 2015 Portfolio Update After making a strong comeback from October into early November, US equities pulled back last week on interest rate and economic concerns. In fact, the S&P 500 fell through the 200-day moving average and nearly hit the 50-day moving average. However, stocks reversed today to finish 1.5% higher, possibly […]
Update: November 2, 2015
November 2, 2015 Portfolio Update It took a while, but the US stock market is back to pre-correction levels. Basically, after the 10% plunge in the S&P 500 in August, the benchmark index has almost fully recovered. It’s up roughly 3% for the year. It took a bit less than 3 months to recover, […]
Update: October 19, 2015
October 19, 2015 Portfolio Update The US stock market has finally calmed down, and many stocks are on their way back up. Over the last month, the S&P 500 is up 4%. For the year, stocks are back to being positive overall. That’s certainly a relief to investors, who hope 2015 finishes with a […]
Update: October 5, 2015
October 5, 2015 Portfolio Update While there still has been a fair amount of volatility since our last update, the last several trading days have been very good for US stocks. The S&P 500 is already up over 3.5% in October after having a tough September. The index is creeping back to even for […]
Update: September 21, 2015
September 21, 2015 Portfolio Update The S&P 500 has stabilized in the past week, at least in terms of daily swings. The benchmark US equity index still has quite a bit of ground to recover to get back to pre-correction levels. However, we seem to at least be done with the wild volatility for […]
Update: August 31, 2015
August 31, 2015 Portfolio Update Without stating too much of the obvious, a lot has happened in the two weeks since our last update. For all intents and purposes, we’ve had a full on correction since then. We’ve also seen about a 50% retracement since the correction. Talk about a volatile two weeks! The […]
Update: August 17, 2015
August 17, 2015 Portfolio Update The past couple weeks have continued to be a display of market choppiness and indecision. The S&P 500 has generally moved sideways, but volatility has picked up just a bit. The benchmark US equity index is still up about 3% on the year (after being down about 1.5% since […]
Update: August 3, 2015
August 3, 2015 Portfolio Update Another couple weeks passed, and another period of mostly sideways action in US equities. The S&P 500 seems to be range bound, although the range is big enough that we’re seeing semi-big moves in either direction. Overall, the benchmark index is up just under 3.5% on the year. Meanwhile, […]
Update: July 20, 2015
July 20, 2015 Portfolio Update What a difference a couple weeks make! Last time I updated you, we were in the midst of a major volatility revival. The VIX has gotten up to 20, and Greece was threatening to leave the Euro. Oh yeah, the Chinese stock market was also crashing. Here’s what I […]
Update: July 6, 2015
July 6, 2015 Portfolio Update It’s been awhile since I wrote one of these after there’s been some real action to talk about. This past week, we saw the return of volatility to the financial markets as the Greece crisis finally unfolded into, well, a real crisis. While the impact of a Greece exit […]
Update: June 15, 2015
June 15, 2015 Portfolio Update Just a quick administrative note to kick things off: I’ll be out of town next Monday, so next week’s trade will come out on Tuesday. Also, the following week, the office is closed for Independence Day, so there will no update until the following week. The action has finally […]
Update: June 1, 2015
June 1, 2015 Portfolio Update Summer is just about here, and stocks are starting to act like it. That is, the range for the S&P 500 is becoming narrower with each passing week. While we’re certainly in a bull market, the action has been more sideways than anything. Over the last month, the S&P […]
Update: May 18, 2015
May 18, 2015 Portfolio Update As we head into the summer, US equities are hitting record highs and market-moving news is slowing down. That’s not to say we won’t see any volatility during the summer months. However, I do expect it to be relatively quiet on the news front – at least as long […]
Update: April 20, 2015
April 20, 2015 Portfolio Update While US stocks continue to trade sideways, there’s been a bit more action the last couple days. Over the last month, the S&P 500 is up a little over a half a percent, and 2.5% on the year so far. Meanwhile, small caps (as measured by the Russell 2000) […]
Update: April 6, 2015
April 6, 2015 Portfolio Update US equities are stuck in a sideways trading range. However, the range has narrowed quite a bit over the past month. This could suggest a breakout is going to occur (one way or another). The S&P 500 is only up about 1% on the year. However, Nasdaq stocks are […]
Update: March 23, 2015
March 23, 2015 Portfolio Update US equities continue on to trade mostly sideways, with a slight upward bias. The S&P 500 is up over 2% on the year, but the path has hardly been a straight line. Meanwhile, small caps have performed much better, with the Russell 2000 up over 5% on the year. […]
Update: March 9, 2015
March 9, 2015 Portfolio Update After marching all the way to record highs, US equities have taken a big step back the past few days. The S&P 500 is now up only about 1% on the year. However, it appears the 50-day moving average is providing necessary support. Meanwhile, the current bull market has […]
Update: February 23, 2015
February 23, 2015 Portfolio Update US equities continue their march towards record highs, as relatively elevated levels of volatility aren’t keeping investors on the sidelines. While the financial markets have mostly been quiet over the last week or so, the VIX has been sitting at higher lows than in previous years. At least part […]
Update: February 9, 2015
February 9, 2015 Portfolio Update It’s been a really interesting year so far for US equities. The S&P 500 has been almost entirely range bound. Yet, volatility has remained elevated. It seems like investors expected a big move (down) in stocks, but instead we’re getting a wide, sideways channel. Global markets continue to be […]
Update: January 26, 2015
January 26, 2015 Portfolio Update US equities still appear to be stuck in a range for the time being, although the range is quite large. The top and bottom of the S&P 500’s current channel are far enough apart that volatility remains at a higher level than we’re used to in recent years. The […]
Update: January 12, 2015
January 12, 2015 Portfolio Update So far in 2015, the financial markets have basically been driven by three things: oil, global economic risk, and volatility. However, with earnings week starting today, there will be a whole series of new inputs to pay attention to. Back to the three categories, oil is still the biggest […]
Update: December 22, 2014
December 22, 2014 Portfolio Update It’s officially the holidays, and many investment professionals will be taking the next two weeks off. That means the markets are likely to be quiet. There may be some movement overall, but only because volume should be extremely light. Heading into the New Year, the main focus should continue […]
Update: December 8, 2014
December 8, 2014 Portfolio Update The two biggest trends over the last couple weeks have been US equity indices moving higher and crude oil declining even farther. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average have been setting record highs, with the only real problem sector being energy. Of course, energy stocks have been […]
Update: November 24, 2014
November 24, 2014 Portfolio Update The major US indices have been trading in record-high range and investors have mostly been complacent. It’s not necessarily unusual at this time of year. Consumers start looking ahead to the holidays and news tends to slow down. That’s not to say all is bright and fuzzy. Sure, the […]
Update: November 10, 2014
November 10, 2014 Portfolio Update Did October even happen? Yes, that significant bout of volatility did actually occur, although investors seem to have a short memory. The S&P 500 is back to setting record highs, and is now up almost 12% on the year. Believe it or not, the benchmark index was actually negative […]
Update: October 27, 2014
October 27, 2014 Portfolio Update The market started the week on a calm note after what’s been a crazy couple weeks. The S&P 500 was sitting at roughly 1,960 the first week of October. The index proceeded to drop all the way to 1,860, plunging through the 200-day moving average. A week later, the […]
Update: October 13, 2014
October 13, 2014 Portfolio Update It’s been a rough couple weeks for the stock market since our last update. Just last week, the S&P 500 was down 3%, bringing the year-to-date return below 5%. Macro fears, especially regarding a global economic slowdown, have been the main culprit. This time around I’m going to talk […]
Update: September 29, 2014
September 29, 2014 Portfolio Update US equity investors are in ‘risk on’ mode as macro concerns have caused a fair amount of selling over the past few days. The S&P 500 is down about 1.5% over the last week, but is still up around 8.5% for the month. The biggest pullback has been in […]
Update: September 15, 2014
September 15, 2014 Portfolio Update US equities are in “wait and see” mode as international events play out. It wasn’t long ago, the S&P 500 hit a record high over 2,000, while the Dow Jones Industrials climbing over 17,000. However, stocks have pulled back over the last week or so. The S&P 500 is […]
Update: September 2, 2014
September 2, 2014 Portfolio Update After climbing all the way back to record highs over the last couple weeks, US equities have been fairly quiet the past few days. The S&P 500 is up about 9.5% on the year while the Dow Industrials are only up about 4.5%. Overall, US stocks are still the […]
Update: August 18, 2014
August 18, 2014 Portfolio Update US equities are looking strong once again as the S&P 500 has pulled within a percent of its all-time highs. The benchmark index is up 7% on the year and has almost entirely recovered from its early August swoon. From a global perspective, US stocks are something of an […]
Update: August 4, 2014
August 4, 2014 Portfolio Update US equities took it on the chin at the end of last week, but have stabilized today. International drama and concerns over a global economic slowdown sent stocks tumbling for the first time this summer. However, investor fear seems to have subsided as we began the first full week […]
Update: July 21, 2014
July 21, 2014 Portfolio Update Stocks have cooled somewhat over the last couple weeks but are still trading near record highs. The S&P 500 is up 8% year-to-date and about 1.25% over the last month. Meanwhile, small caps stocks have gotten hit pretty hard lately and are now down about a percent on the […]
Update: July 7, 2014
July 7, 2014 Portfolio Update The S&P 500 hasn’t quite breached the 2,000 mark yet, but the Dow Industrials did top 17,000 for the first time. The markets continue to rally despite relatively low trading volume. That’s not entirely a surprise given it’s the summer and news has been relatively tame. International news continues […]
Update: June 23, 2014
June 23, 2014 Portfolio Update Geopolitical events are becoming increasingly volatile, but US investors continue to brush off any serious concerns. The S&P 500 is up nearly 4% for the month and 7% for the year. Meanwhile, volatility continues to run at very low levels. Even the Iraq situation and subsequent rise in crude […]
Update: June 9, 2014
June 9, 2014 Portfolio Update Market activity has been slow overall, but the S&P 500 continues to rally and set new highs. For the year, the benchmark index is up 6.25%. Not bad considering it was close to even in what seems like a very short time ago. US equities continue to show signs […]
Update: May 27, 2014
May 27, 2014 Portfolio Update With the market closed yesterday for Memorial Day, we’re sending out the portfolio update today. As is typical for a week before a 3-day weekend, it’s been pretty quiet in the US equities markets. Volatility is running at 52-week lows and US-based news has been relatively uneventful. On the […]
Update: May 12, 2014
May 12, 2014 Portfolio Update The theme of the equities markets the past couple weeks has been that of divergence. That is, there’s been a divergence between large cap and small cap performance. And, there’s been a divergence between Nasdaq and S&P 500 stocks. The S&P 500 is up over 2% for the year, […]
Update: April 28, 2014
April 28, 2014 Portfolio Update It’s funny, the last two weeks have been much like the previous two-week period, except with earnings thrown in. The Nasdaq keeps threatening to break support and head towards the 200-day moving average – but buyers keep stepping in before it actually happens. In the meantime, the S&P 500 […]
Update: April 14, 2014
April 14, 2014 Portfolio Update It’s been an interesting couple weeks in the US equities markets. Most notably, the Nasdaq has gotten hit hard as investors rotate out of Internet and biotech stocks. Basically, it looks like investors want to take off some risk heading into Q2. There aren’t any definitive reasons behind this […]
Update: March 31, 2014
March 31, 2014 Portfolio Update US equities continue to trade in a sideways manner, although the S&P 500 is still up about a percent for the year. Overall for the quarter, stocks have underperformed bonds (Treasuries) substantially, with long-term bonds up 8%. Although, over the last year, stocks are up over 20% compared to […]
Update: March 17, 2014
March 17, 2014 Portfolio Update After a tough week last week, US equities jumped today on news of stronger than expected industrial production. The S&P 500 climbed by a 1% as did the Dow Industrials. The Ukraine/Crimea crisis is likely to drag on, but investors aren’t too worried at the moment. On Sunday, Crimea […]
Update: March 3, 2014
March 3, 2014 Portfolio Update The crisis in the Ukraine has derailed what has been a mostly positive, low volatility past week for US equities. The S&P 500 is down 0.75% on concerns over Russia’s troops entering the Ukraine. Prior to today, the benchmark index had been up nearly 1.5% over the last week. […]
Update: February 18, 2014
February 18, 2014 Portfolio Update Normally this update will come out on Mondays, but with the markets closed for Presidents’ Day yesterday, I’m sending it out today. Next week you can expect us to return to the normal schedule. Since our first trades last week, the market has essentially stabilized. The S&P 500 is […]
