Weekly Update: July 30, 2015

| July 30, 2015

Weekly Update:  July 30, 2015


What To Watch

Last week was mostly about the markets settling down and investors focusing on individual earnings reports.  This week has been more about US economics and interest rates.

The S&P 500 looks like it’s once again trading sideways in a 50 to 75 point range.  It’s been in roughly the same range now for about six months.  Will we see a breakout before year’s end?  We’ll find out soon enough.  The benchmark is up 3.5% on the year.

In the meantime, the Nasdaq 100 has also been range-bound, but with an upward bias.  The tech heavy index is up over 8% for the year.  Keep in mind, the QQQ is going to be driven by a few big names, more so than the S&P 500.

This week was all about economics and the Fed.  In interest rates news, the Fed is definitely seeing job market improvement, although a healthy level of inflation has still proven to be elusive.  It still appears we’re looking at September for the first rate hike.

In economics news, GDP grew at 2.3% last quarter, a nice clip over the first quarter but still tepid overall.  Personal consumption spending definitely got a boost in recent months, a very good sign.  However, business spending is in need of improvement.  Overall, not much to be excited about – but not much to worry about either.

I’ll have a new trade next week, and I’ll likely be looking for a put to add to our call heavy portfolio.


Portfolio Recap

Position #1: Cameco (CCJ) August 15 Calls

Price Paid: $0.53

Current Price: $0.15

Time Until Expiration: 22 days

CCJ has closed above an important resistance line, which is good news with still three weeks to go to expiration.  Next stop looks to be the 50-day moving average, right around $14.50.


Position #2: Bank of America (BAC) August 17 Calls

Price Paid: $0.39

Current Price: $1.18

Time Until Expiration: 22 days

BAC pulled back before hitting our aggressive exit point, but has already bounced back higher.  I imagine most of you have closed this position for nice gains already, but there’s still an opportunity for the stock to break $18.50, and perhaps set new highs in the call price as well.


Position #3: Oracle (ORCL) August 41 Calls

Price Paid: $0.75

Current Price: $0.15

Time Until Expiration: 22 days

Well, now we have at least a little reason to be optimistic about this trade.  ORCL has rebounded sharply from support and is now back at the 20-day moving average.  The next stop looks like the 50-day moving average, above our call strike.  With three weeks to go, this position now has a shot at profitability.


Position #4: Apple (AAPL) August 127 Calls

Price Paid: $1.42

Current Price: $0.70

Time Until Expiration: 22 days

AAPL investors are still determining when they want to jump back in the stock, as it clearly hasn’t happened yet.  Now that most the biggest NASDAQ companies have reported, we could see investors picking a bottom.  I expect a rebound in the very near future.


Position #5: Mosaic (MOS) August 43 Calls

Price Paid: $0.99

Current Price: $0.98

Time Until Expiration: 22 days

We’ve only had MOS calls on for a day, but so far, so good.  I’ll have more to say next week.


Category: OTW Weekly Updates