Update: March 21, 2016

| March 21, 2016

March 21, 2016

 

Portfolio Update

The bulls seem to be in control, at least for now.  The market has certainly stabilized over the last several weeks, especially in terms of volatility.  Today, the spot VIX price was at 14 – the lowest it’s been all year.

The S&P 500 and DJIA are positive for the first time this year, with the Nasdaq 100 and the Russell 2000 about 3% from being in the black.  Crude oil is back to flat on the year, with oil prices above $40 per barrel.  Gold is still having a good year despite the recovery, up over 17% year-to-date.

Much of the positive vibe is coming from the economic recovery (in the US at least).  It’s not that there ever was a true downturn, but the economy was showing signs of weakness in January and February, which have quickly been reversed.  The jobs market looks very good, and other metrics are showing signs of life as well.

Meanwhile, the Fed helped out by not doing something as ill-advised as raising rates.  The central bank sees the pace of rate increases slowing compared to original forecasts.  Of course, that’s good news for investors, who are clearly not ready for higher rates.

Our portfolio has broken through after a slow start to the year. Sometimes, you just have to be patient and let your trade themes work.  Our persistence in picking cheap stocks with upside has really started to pay off, with several huge winners coming through.

Let’s take a look at some portfolio highlights…

 

Portfolio Highlights

Just a quick note:  We won’t update every open position every update.  I try to focus on the positions that have some significant news or price movement.

  • Cummins (CMI) June 110 Calls – We nailed CMI, which quickly went from around $100 to over $110. We hit both of our profit-taking points already, despite having until June until expiration.  Hard to argue with the results!  Peak gains are 233%.

 

  • Albemarle (ALB) April 60 Calls – ALB has also been on a nearly vertical run since our trade. The lithium giant has hit our first profit-taking point.  The final exit point is $64 for aggressive traders. Peak gains so far are 184%.

 

  • Newmont Mining (NEM) April 26 Calls – Despite the drop in volatility, the long gold trade has continued to perform. NEM has slowly made its way upward, in a clear trend.  This is a more conservative trade in terms of upside, but we’ve hit our first profit-taking point with peak gains of 51%.  $30 is the final exit level.

 

Category: AOA Updates

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