These 3 Major Events Will Trigger A 20% Market Rally

| February 12, 2016 | 0 Comments

Wall StreetWhile most of the market remains hyper-focused on anything bearish, there have been three major events brewing on the sideline that could cause a dramatic and fast 20% rise in the markets.

Investors have had few places to hide in the first five weeks of the year, and all the major averages are down significantly in 2016. Other sectors such as small caps, biotechs, and transports are faring much worse and are in official bear market territory. Distress among energy producers is increasing as oil stubbornly stays around the $30.00 a barrel level. Correspondingly, defaults in the high-yield credit market are projected to be at their highest levels during this year than at any time since the financial crisis.

However, all is not gloomy on the market. The U.S. has not yet entered a recession and probably will not at this time. Job growth remains solid and outside of manufacturing most of the rest of the domestic economy is holding up well. Much has been written on how China needs to stabilize and the Federal Reserve needs to move to a more dovish stance before the markets can rally. However, they are not the only things that could boost sentiment on equities. Here are three things most investors don’t have on their radar but could provide support for stocks in the months ahead.

Rubio’s Surge Continues:

There were a couple of interesting things that came out of the Iowa caucuses. On the Democratic side of things, Hillary Clinton won six out of six coin flips to win six tied caucus sites and eked out a slight victory over Bernie Sanders. Packers’ fans would probably pay good money after their recent playoff defeat to have any of those coins.

On the Republican side, Donald Trump proved he was not invincible after all. Ted Cruz managed to win the opening salvo in the nomination season even while touching the third rail of Iowa politics – support for the ethanol mandate. More interestingly, Marco Rubio surged way above expectations in a state he was not projected to do well in; he just missed taking second place from Mr. Trump by one percent. He emerged from the state with the same amount of delegates as the former reality TV star.

If Mr. Rubio can translate this result into momentum that starts to look like it could propel him to the nomination, it could have a beneficial impact on the markets. Mr. Rubio is deemed by far as the most “pro-business” of the five major candidates left in the 2016 presidential race at this point in time. He is also the most hawkish in regards to defense.

If he somehow manages to look like he will secure the nomination it will force the general election much more to the middle than would either Mr. Trump or Mr. Cruz. The Democratic nominee would also have to play more for independents and the middle ground. This could lessen all the primary election rhetoric around drug price “gouging” and be very good for the beaten up Pharma and Biotech sectors. If Mr. Rubio would look likely to win in the general election, I would expect defense stocks and financials to rally.

Signs Of M&A Picking Up:

The volatile market in 2016 has caused new IPOs to dry to a trickle. M&A is also down after last year’s record amount of deals. However, in recent weeks Dupont (NYSE: DD) and Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW) have announced a proposed merger which would create a chemical giant. ChemChina just offered to purchase Switzerland’s Syngenta (NYSE: SYT) in a transaction that would be worth more than $43 billion as well. This would translate into the largest ever international takeover by a Chinese company. If regulators allow both transactions and this is the beginning of a resurgence of M&A activity, this would show “animal spirits” are still alive and well in this market and be supportive of equities.

Détente Among Major Energy Producers:

Syria continues to dominate the international news cycle and the conflict there has led to the biggest migration wave to hit Europe since World War II. Iran, with assistance from Russia in Syria, is waging a proxy war with Saudi Arabia for influence in the region which also includes the civil war in Yemen. This violence gets little media coverage at the moment.

This war for influence has massive economic impacts as Saudi Arabia continues to pump oil without any reductions. This is one of the major reasons crude has slid some 70% since the summer of 2014 to $30.00 a barrel. Ostensibly, this effort is to maintain “market share” in global energy markets. However, it has geopolitical dimensions as well. The Saudis have not been too shy of letting Iran know they intend to rob them of the additional funds they expected as the result of international sanctions coming off as the result of the recently concluded nuclear deal. It is also a not too subtle jab at the current administration for what the House of Saud considers capitulation to Iran on our part and also to punish U.S. shale concerns for becoming the “swing” producer in the global energy market.

This is causing major pain for Iran, Russia, and Saudi Arabia and is rapidly depleting foreign reserves in all three countries. Saudi Arabia is the best positioned from a financial position to survive a long-term price war. However, its policy is not working as it intended. U.S. shale producers continue to pump near record amounts of oil as does Russia.

Kuwait, a key member of OPEC as well as Russia have made recent noises about their willingness to consider production cuts. If Saudi Arabia throws in and others are also willing to make production cuts so they can maintain face as well as their “market share,” some sort of deal could be reached. If oil could trade back into the $40 to $60 a barrel range, this would relieve significant pressure on the high yield credit markets. It would also alleviate concern about the state of the sovereign debt situation of oil producing emerging markets like Argentina, Brazil, and Nigeria. This would also be good for the market overall.

Investors should watch all three events closely even if they are currently getting little shrift in the financial press.

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About the Author ()

Bret Jensen is the lead equities analyst with Investors Alley. He's the editor of our newsletters including The Growth Stock Advisor and Biotech Gems. Previously Bret was Co-Founder and Chief Investment Strategist for Simplified Assessment Management, a fund in the top 5% for total returns its inaugural year, and a technology manager in the financial services industry. Bret also actively manages Bret Jensen Invests, a financial news and investment generation website with an investment style using small bets across a myriad of promising but speculative stocks to mitigate risk in these highly volatile sectors of the market.